Mali’s Junta Risks Tribal Unrest as Ethnic Tensions Deepen

Ethnic and tribal tensions are rising in Mali as the prolonged rule of the military junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, threatens the fragile balance among the country’s diverse communities, including the Bambara, Tuareg, Fulani, Songhai, and Dogon.

The military’s power base, concentrated in Bamako and southern Mali, primarily reflects the influence of the Bambara-dominated elite. This centralization risks marginalizing northern groups such as the Tuareg and Arab populations, who have long-standing grievances over political exclusion and underdevelopment. Goïta’s government, lacking electoral legitimacy, offers few platforms for these communities to voice their concerns.

In central Mali, particularly the Mopti region, intercommunal violence between Dogon and Fulani groups has worsened. The junta’s security approach to jihadist threats—often viewed as disproportionately targeting Fulani populations—has fueled resentment and increased polarization.

Traditional tribal leaders, who once played a key role in local conflict resolution, are also being sidelined. The junta’s alliance with foreign actors, including Russia’s Wagner Group, and its centralized grip on power have undermined local mediation structures.

Analysts warn that unless inclusive governance is restored, there is a growing risk of tribal rebellions or renewed separatist movements, especially in the north. Tuareg factions, with a history of insurgency, may reignite calls for autonomy if the 2015 Algiers Accord and other peace efforts continue to erode under the current regime.