An estimated 61,000 people have died in Sudan’s Khartoum state within the first 14 months of its ongoing conflict, according to a recent study by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Sudan Research Group. The study, released before peer review, suggests that the actual toll from the war could be significantly higher than reported, particularly as malnutrition and disease add to the fatalities.
The researchers found that 26,000 violent deaths were reported, surpassing current UN estimates for the entire country. This mortality rate in Khartoum state is approximately 50% higher than the national pre-war average. Using a “capture-recapture” methodology, researchers analyzed overlapping lists from public surveys, community activist networks, and social media obituaries to estimate unreported deaths.
Sudan’s war, driven by a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has led to severe disruptions in medical access, basic services, and food supplies, leaving 25 million people in urgent need of aid. Despite some relief in supply routes due to army presence, malnutrition and disease rates have surged, especially in Bahri’s al-Shuhada Hospital, where cases of malaria, cholera, and dengue fever have increased.
According to the study, these indirect war impacts now represent a significant portion of Sudan’s growing death toll, alongside violence. The report highlights that other conflict zones in Sudan could have suffered similar or even worse fates.
